On Quantifying the Topsy-Turvyness of a College
Football Season: Comparing the TT Factors

Autar Kaw
December 21, 2007
Comparing the TT factors                                                       Page   1   2   3   4      

The method to find the Week TT Factor is based on comparing the AP poll rankings
from the current week to that of the previous week.  The Season TT factor is a
weighted average of the Week TT factors.

To compare the topsy-turvyness of the past six seasons (2002-07), the table below
shows the end of season TT factor, percentage number of weeks with a Week TT
factor of 91  or more (considered to be topsy-turvy; the number 91 is based on
average TT factors and their standard deviation), and percentage number of weeks
with a Week TT factor of 47  or less (considered to be stable; the number 47 is
based on average TT factors and their standard deviation).
Season
 Season
TT factor
 Percentage of
weeks with
Week TT
Factor>=91
 Percentage of
Weeks with
Week TT
Factor <=47
 Percentage of
Weeks with
Week TT
Factor>=69
 Percentage of
Weeks with
Week TT
Factor<69
2007
 82
 33
 0
 73
 27
2006
 63
 7
 13
 40
 60
2005
 69
 20
 13
 53
 47
2004
 55
 7
 27
 20
 80
2003
 76
 27
 7
 67
 33
2002
 70
 13
 19
 44
 56
69 is the average Week TT factor of
Seasons 2002-07

22 is the standard deviation of the
Week TT factors of Seasons 2002-07

Average+ one standard deviation
= 69+22
= 91

Average- one standard deviation
= 69-22
= 47
  • The end of Season TT factor: 82 for 2007, 76 for 2003
  • Percentage of Week TT factors 91 or more: 33% for 2007, 27% for 2003
  • Percentage of Week TT factors 69 or more: 73% for 2007, 67% for 2003
  • Percentage of Week TT factors 91 or more: only 7% for 2004
  • Percentage of Week TT factors 69 or more: only 20% for 2004